But there are no guarantees that will last, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan already has an established track record of acting erratically when he feels the political and economic pressure bearing down on him. White House Transition to Continue Trajectory of US-Vietnam Relations Current economic, geopolitical and social signals are mixed, creating uncertainty across business environments and requiring companies to consider both defensive and offensive strategies. Here we go: Back in January, we were worried about the legitimacy of upcoming elections given the fallout of the most politicized impeachment process in history, the near certainty of foreign interference, and presidential candidates themselves fanning conspiracy theory flames. Europe has been a geopolitical nonentity since the 1990s. The Great Decoupling. Timeline: The Downward Spiral of China-Australia Relations, Backgrounder: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Water Scarcity Monitor: Saudi Arabia, Spain, and Chile, Backgrounder: Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean Conflict, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Lithium Demand, UK Economy Battered by Dual Reckoning of COVID-19 and Brexit, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Lithium Supply, China’s Foreign Policy Adrift upon Rivers of Sand, Japan-Australia Defense Treaty: US Allies Adapting to New Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, Decoding Duterte’s Shifting Stance on the South China Sea Dispute, White House Transition to Continue Trajectory of US-Vietnam Relations, The Rise, Dominance, and Decline of Thailand’s Monarchy. Obviously, the arrival of coronavirus on European shores has now fundamentally changed that orientation—rather than battling the U.S. and China in the geopolitical sphere, Brussels is now focused on battling Coronavirus at home. This article examines factors impacting lithium supply over the next decade. Verdict: Coronavirus increases this risk. New energy paradigms demand new strategic commodities. Conditioned by the geopolitical specifics of its location as viewed from the point of the Rimland theory, Russia is currently in a deadlock of choosing between its national integrity and the reconciliation with the current world leaders, including major states of Europe and the United States of America, which explains its focus on defensive power. Current Issue. by Ben Buchanan. Verdict: Coronavirus SIGNIFICANTLY increases this risk. A President Biden would be unlikely to hit the ‘reset’ button in US-China relations, which suggests progress in Washington’s partnership with Hanoi. First in a new series, this article examines factors impacting lithium demand over the next decade. Situation Reports - November 23, 2020 Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, often labeled ‘soft’ on Beijing, has recently adopted tougher rhetoric on the South China Sea. In general, U.S. presidential elections are geopolitical issues because of America’s hegemonic status. Back in January, we flagged that as bad as the tech war between the U.S. and China had the potential to become, there was worse yet to go as this split between China and the U.S. would spill into other economic areas. Poland is where the clash of geopolitical … In Asia’s New Geopolitics: Essays on Reshaping the Indo-Pacific, Michael R. Auslin presents a series of essays touching on major security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Its resurgence in the first decade of the 21st century was one of the many unintended outcomes of US military adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Deadly wildfires including those affecting Australia, hurricanes, extreme weather events, and climate-influenced migration and hunger in many parts of the world are now regular occurrences. May 18, 2020 al The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part I (NB: Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next report will be published on June 1.) A geopolitical lens: July 2020 Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer on the implications of COVID-19 and the geopolitical recession, including the impact on global trade and cooperation. Chronicling the events that led to the present low point in China-Australia relations. Coronavirus has sped up that timeline considerably; manufacturing and services sectors have already been forced to begin reorganizing supply chains and staff given their exposure to China. Relations between the private and public sector have rarely been easy. We will keep tracking developments, helping make sense of what coronavirus means for both politics and markets going forward. Relatedly—we made the point a few months ago as the economic tussle between the U.S. and China intensified, the fight between the world’s two only economic superpower would transform into a broader fight of influence and values as well, coupled with national security elements as well. Coronavirus hasn’t just overturned daily life as we know it; it’s also upended global politics. ... 2020. White House Transition to Continue Trajectory of US-Vietnam Relations If it does that successfully, it may well turn its sights back onto the U.S. and China; if it doesn’t, Europe may have bigger problems on its hands, especially if it is forced to try to salvage the bloc’s battered economy with monetary policy options that are quickly dwindling. Yet though more critical of China, the tone has remained noticeably diplomatic. The year 2020 certainly got off to a bang with tensions between the U.S. and Iran high amid Tehran-backed protests in Iraq and experts believe that geopolitical … That’s good news for the climate change fight that was coming in 2020; that’s worse news for the climate change fight overall that still needs to be had down the line. Latin America was in political crisis even before coronavirus, with a newly-created middle class demanding better public services and less corruption from their leaders and not getting them. Big {Political} Data. As Mehdi Mozaffari (2020) underlines, the main question concerns the compatibility of the current global system with a world made up of a plurality of civilizations (where civilization is defined as world vision and historical formation). A medical worker wearing a protective suit collects sample from a migrant worker for a nucleic acid test for the COVID-19 coronavirus at a construction site amid the coronavirus outbreak on March 13, 2020 in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province of China. As with Latin America, Turkey has yet to be hit as hard as Coronavirus as other countries in the world. ... Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics. Tuesday, October 13, 2020 By: Jumaina Siddiqui; Cyril Almeida. At the same time though, a significant coronavirus outbreak in Iraq and Syria could deal real blows to two countries struggling to pick up the pieces and stabilize themselves, which U.S. policy wasn’t helping them do in the first place. Updated January 14, 2020 Iran—with a population approaching 84 million and buttressed by ample oil reserves—is one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East. Geopolitical issues of Kosovo. Combined with the recent collapse of oil prices following Russia and Saudi Arabia’s decision to enter an oil-price war, leaders of oil-producing countries like Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico need to brace for some difficult weeks ahead; so too the rest of Latin America, whose health system and underlying infrastructure will be tested like never before in the coming weeks and months… all while a population already on edge watches on. Recent data paints a bleak picture of economic recovery in the United Kingdom. Now both the U.S. and Iran are struggling to deal with their own domestic outbreaks of the coronavirus, meaning that both sides have even less incentive to go to war with one another. Weekly Geopolitical Report – October 19, 2020 Page 2 treat the South as occupied territory and enforce racial equality on the region. Yet though more critical of China, the tone has remained noticeably diplomatic. Yet though more critical of China, the tone has remained noticeably diplomatic. Altogether, these essays form a comprehensive overview of the current geopolitical situation in the region from a U.S. perspective, providing ample recommendations for how the U.S. might balance against […] Of the world’s top ten economies, Brazil was the only one without a single policy maker in Munich. As such, I’ve revisited our Top Risks 2020 that we published back in January and have updated them (the first time in our history we’ve ever done that) with the potential impact that the coronavirus will have on each of them. Published. In our geopolitical outlook for 2020,1 our most important issue was the 2020 elections. Tim Marshall examines the backdrop to current geopolitical struggles in Belarus When military strategists in London, Moscow, Warsaw, Washington and elsewhere look at the political chaos in Belarus they could be forgiven for thinking, ‘Mind the gap’. That slowing global economy remains a massive challenge for them given coronavirus and new supply chain worries, but for the time being governments have other worries aside from holding MNCs to account; what’s more, the challenges coronavirus brings offers opportunities for tech companies and pharmaceuticals to step up and help people live their lives as normally as possible during these trying times. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, left, and Vice Minister of Ecology and Environment of China Zhao Yingmin, second left, arrive for a press conference … To understand China’s foreign policy toward India and bordering ASEAN countries, one must understand its national water crisis. Nagorno-Karabakh Clashes: Prelude to a Wider War? Call it a wash. In the US, President Donald Trump recommended that ‘preliminary work’ for a formal transition of power to President-elect Joe Begin begins. By Lucja Cannon • August 5, 2020. , With this in mind, we should expect politics in Europe and the US to be more focused on the current health crisis and its follow-on implications. Situation Reports - November 23, 2020 Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, often labeled ‘soft’ on Beijing, has recently adopted tougher rhetoric on the South China Sea. 28 Jun 2020 (delayed. We were significantly unnerved about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s turn to Hindu nationalism when we wrote our original report back in January, a political orientation which had significant ramifications for Indian society as well as the country’s progress toward economic reforms. There are no guarantees that will be the case going forward, especially as the country is three times as crowded as China in terms of population density and has nowhere near the same kind of health and political response capacity as China. ‘Geopolitical’ Europe could struggle to take shape in troublesome 2020 By Alexandra Brzozowski | EURACTIV.com 03-01-2020 (updated: 08-01-2020 ) Oil Collapse and Covid-19 Create Toxic Geopolitical Stew. And if a Coronavirus outbreak rips through India, it could push the country towards yet-more social upheaval. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our, Top Geopolitical Risks in 2020: Coronavirus Update. Ethiopia: A Geopolitical Time Bomb in the Making, Russia and the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Deal under a Biden Presidency, Backgrounder: Evolution of Organized Crime in Mexico. Back in January, we flagged that as bad as the tech war between the U.S. and … Meanwhile, Biden announced the first nominations for his incoming administration’s cabinet. Indeed, our entire ecosystem is at risk: 1 million animal and … That pressure was already mounting given high-profile defections from his ruling AK Party, a softening Turkish economy and costly military adventurism in Syria that has seriously strained Turkey’s relations with both Russia and the European Union. News about upcoming issues, contributors, special events, online features, and more. The new defense pact is a concrete demonstration that Washington’s closest security partners are proactively increasing their contributions to the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S., meanwhile, sent 40 current and former lawmakers across the Atlantic — including heavyweights Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, Mitt Romney, Lindsey Graham — as well as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mike Esper. United States International Human Rights Climate Change Election 2020. Issues like climate change, digital disruption, and migration will act as threat multipliers in 2020, but a number of country specific threats will complicate the global chessboard as well. In the RCEP trade agreement, governments across Asia have charted an economic future for themselves – one that excludes the United States. Volume 25, 2020 Vol 24, 2019 Vol 23, 2018 Vol 22, 2017 Vol 21, 2016 Vol 20, 2015 Vol 19, 2014 Vol 18, 2013 Vol 17, 2012 Vol 16, 2011 Vol 15, 2010 Vol 14, 2009 Vol 13, 2008 Vol 12, 2007 Vol 11, 2006 Vol 10, 2005 Vol 9, 2004 Vol 8, 2003 Vol 7, 2002 Vol 6, 2001 Vol 5, 2000 Vol 4, 1999 Vol 3, 1998 Both countries have leaders who very much care how their response to coronavirus is being viewed by both domestic and international audiences—laying the blame on one another doesn’t help them contain the virus in any way, but it does help them deflect the political fallout. Add in the impending strain of coronavirus, and it’s possible Erdogan lashes out in new and even more unpredictable ways as he struggles to maintain both power and popularity. Viewed from the other side of the Atlantic, the coronavirus crisis will have significant geopolitical implications in the near term, becoming possibly even more significant over the next few years. With the largest economy in the world, 450 million people, and defense spending comparable to Russia’s, the continent could be a colossus. Geopolitical news and analysis that covers all regions and the impact geopolitics has on people, the economy, health and the markets. Not good. Before coronavirus, we expected 2020 to be a year when these MNCs would face calls for more action on social issues like climate change and the battle against poverty, all while they struggled to satisfy shareholders in a slowing global economic environment. Climate Change has unalterably begun moving from the political fringes into the political mainstream; 2020 was the year that climate action momentum would force a clash between activists, governments and businesses. In Karachi, Flooding Lays Bare City’s Governance Issues. As of this writing, Latin America has yet to be hit as hard from Coronavirus as Asia and Europe, but that may be just a matter of time. Examining three of the most water-stressed countries in the world according to the World Resources Institute (WRI). All Rights Reserved. This article critically examines the current indo-china geopolitical issues and its implications. The US has never attempted a country-wide mail-in vote or national e-voting, and in a political environment as polarized as this one, even the slightest hiccup will provide plenty of fodder for folks to denounce any election result they don’t like. New energy paradigms demand new strategic commodities. I’ve been working on figuring out what coronavirus means for geopolitics beyond the immediate crisis that we’re in. By Christian Takushi MA UZH, Macro Economist & Geopolitical Strategist. For more commentary on this topic, see our 2020 Geopolitical Forecast. Sign In Subscribe. We continue to be worried about that… but so far India has managed to handle the coronavirus outbreak quite well. Anglo America Geopolitics.news - November 27, 2020 0 The United States has closed at least 10 of its military bases in Afghanistan since reaching an agreement with the Taliban last February, as... Iranian commander accuses Israel of killing Iranian scientist to trigger war Middle East Geopolitics.news - November 27, 2020 0 That means much more U.S.-China turbulence going forward. Misguided US policy towards Shia-led countries in the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Syria) was pushing the region towards instability, we warned back in January. The third geopolitical lens is the evolution of external power engagement in Southeast Asia. The majority of white Southerners opposed this policy vehemently. That would become apparent through increased tech regulation, stricter enforcement/utilization of trade rules and tariffs, and even increased military cooperation among the European bloc’s remaining member states. All that continues to be true… and now Coronavirus opens up a brand-new avenue for political recriminations and mudslinging, all while complicating the physical act of going to the polls. And while climate change still represents the greatest physical and existential threat the world faces, the immediacy with which the issue was being treated has been supplanted by the near-term crisis of coronavirus. Executive Summary Politically, several developments have occurred. The greatest significance of the recent victory of President Andrzej Duda of Poland in the presidential election over his liberal and the pro-German opponent is international, not domestic. on. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2020 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. But as the world’s problems began to mount and governments struggled to keep up, people began looking to multinational corporations (MNCs) to help address many of the issues that were plaguing the societies in which these multinationals operated and extracted profit. While COVID-19 could be faulted for initiating the stock market decline, it is not solely to blame, DiGruttolo said. Many parts of Pakistan have always struggled with flooding, especially over the last decade, due in part to climate change as weather events have become more extreme. ... April 22, 2020; ... four times the current price. But despite the rhetoric, neither the U.S. nor Iran wanted a genuine military confrontation (the Soleimani assassination not withstanding). June 26, 2020 ... the current state of affairs has forced him to give up on putting forward “great initiatives” relative to the Kosovo issue and he is waiting for proposal from the international community. Verdict: Coronavirus SIGNIFICANTLY decreases this risk (for now). China, meanwhile, has been pushing the story that the coronavirus was bioengineered in a US army lab. 5 months ago. Yet Europe has never come close to equaling the combined clout of its constituent countries. All this, and we’re still in the early days of the coronavirus changing life as we know it. modified & truncated release to the public of a geopolitical round-up issued on 26 June 2020… Before Coronavirus hit, the E.U.—under new leadership with the recent arrival of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen—was gearing up to take a more assertive approach to both its relationship with China and the US. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, often labeled ‘soft’ on Beijing, has recently adopted tougher rhetoric on the South China Sea. Ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and the very survival of island nations is being threatened. We receive over a million unique answers (and filter out multiple submissions) to our political issues survey per day and categorize the submissions by political affiliation, state, city, and referral website, as well as census data estimates by income, race, education, and household. The numbers are in: The past decade has been the warmest in recorded history. President Johnson, who replaced Lincoln after the assassination, had mostly sided with white Southerners on this issue. Verdict: While coronavirus decreases the risks of U.S. policy toward Iran, it increases them in Syria and Iraq. It was a potent mix of factors that guaranteed roughly half the country would feel like elections were “stolen” from them if their preferred candidate didn’t win. Wei Liang—China News Service/Getty Images, Who Should Be TIME’s Person of the Year for 2020? Those moves, for the time being, are temporary, but the longer the current global health crisis holds, the more businesses will be forced to consider making these moves permanent, deepening the divide between the U.S. and China. Politics. Vote Now, What Donald Trump Can — And Can't — Do with the Pardon Power, Melania Trump's Christmas Decorations Gave the Internet the Most Wonderful Memes of the Year, Republicans Attack Joe Biden’s Budget Chief Pick Over Tweets, Sign up to receive the top stories you need to know now on politics, health and more, © 2020 TIME USA, LLC. Who is backing who in simmering geopolitical tensions over energy deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean? Receive the latest from KPMG Board Leadership Center Current circumstance exacerbates these trends, especially as they relate to isolationism and the potential for a worldwide economic downturn. Verdict: Coronavirus neither increases nor decreases this risk significantly. This, too, has been accelerated by the coronavirus, which U.S. president Donald Trump and members of his party have begun referring to as the “Wuhan virus” and “Chinese virus”. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful …
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